AEP 2026 Analysis and Databook

MA growth has structurally slowed to just +1.0% YoY, becoming increasingly concentrated as the Top 5 carriers still control ~70% of enrollment while several large nationals retreat through margin-driven retrenchment. Growth is rotating toward focused operators and regionally entrenched PSPs, with C-SNP specifically outpacing D-SNP growth at a rate of nearly 3:1 — creating a differentiated entry wedge for clinically integrated plans and condition-focused startups.